The Impact of School Closure for COVID-19 on the US Healthcare Workforce and the Net Mortality Effects

Jude Bayham; Eli P Fenichel

The exposure of the healthcare labor force to school closures is not homogeneous throughout the US (Appendix Table 1 ). How a policy trade-off plays out in one place may be different than another even if two locations experience a similar set of COVID-19 cases. That is, different places may have similar projected benefits from school closures, but different costs. The greatest share of the healthcare labor force with child care obligations is in Utah (35%), Louisiana (35%), and Missouri (34%), whereas the healthcare labor force in Washington DC (16%), Vermont (21%), and Massachusetts (24%) have the least child care obligations. However, household structures also vary. Therefore, if childcare obligations can be met by a non-working adult or older sibling, then South Dakota (21%), Oregon (20%), and Missouri (20%) are the most exposed states to school closure induced healthcare worker shortages. Washington DC (9%), New Mexico (10%), and New Jersey (11%) may be most able to cover their child care obligations. Louisiana (12%), Mississippi (11%), and Pennsylvania (10%) have the greatest fraction of single-parent healthcare worker households. These differences are likely an interaction of variations in state-level healthcare regulation, cultural, and demographic differences. This requires state and local health officials to consider the exposure of their own state (data available at https://github.com/jbayham/us_childcare_obligations) or region.