COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: where we at?

Lobo, Andréa de Paula; Cardoso-dos-Santos, Augusto César; Rocha, Marli Souza; Pinheiro, Rejane Sobrino; Bremm, João Matheus; Macário, Eduardo Marques; Oliveira, Wanderson Klébler de; França, Giovanny Vinícius Araújo de

Abstract Objetive to analyze the trends of COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020 by Federal Units (FU). Method ecological time-series based on cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 11 to May 12. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify points of inflection in COVID-19 trends, considering the days since the 50th confirmed case as time unit. Results Brazil reached the 50th confirmed case of COVID-19 in 11 March 2020 and, 63 days after that, on May 12, 177,589 cases had been confirmed. The trends for all regions and FU are upward. In the last segment, from the 31st to the 63rd day, Brazil presented a DPC of 7.3% (95%CI= 7.2;7.5). For the country the ADPC was 14.2% (95%CI: 13.8;14.5). The highest ADPC values were found in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions. Conclusions In summary, our results show that all FUs in Brazil present upward trends of COVID-19. In some FUs, the slowdown in DPC in the last segment must be considered carefully. Each FUs is at a different stage of the pandemic and, therefore, non-pharmacological measures must be applied accordingly.