Using random testing to manage a safe exit from the COVID-19 lockdown

Markus Mueller; Peter Derlet; Christopher Mudry; Gabriel Aeppli

To quantify the latter benefit, observe that the effect of massive testing on the growth rate k is proportional to the testing rate [5] . Let us assume that without testing or social measures one has a growth rate k 0 . Then, if the testing rate τ −1 full is sufficient to completely suppress the exponential growth in the absence of other measures, a smaller testing rate τ −1 decreases the growth rate k 0 down to (τ −1 /τ −1 full ) × k 0 . The remaining reduction of k to zero must then be achieved by a combination of restrictive social measures and contact tracing.