Author: Paul, Rajib; Arif, Ahmed A.; Adeyemi, Oluwaseun; Ghosh, Subhanwita; Han, Dan
Title: Progression of COVIDâ€19 From Urban to Rural Areas in the United States: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Prevalence Rates Cord-id: 8vjhdqlb Document date: 2020_6_30
ID: 8vjhdqlb
Snippet: PURPOSE: There are growing signs that the COVIDâ€19 virus has started to spread to rural areas and can impact the rural health care system that is already stretched and lacks resources. To aid in the legislative decision process and proper channelizing of resources, we estimated and compared the countyâ€level change in prevalence rates of COVIDâ€19 by ruralâ€urban status over 3 weeks. Additionally, we identified hotspots based on estimated prevalence rates. METHODS: We used crowdsourced data
Document: PURPOSE: There are growing signs that the COVIDâ€19 virus has started to spread to rural areas and can impact the rural health care system that is already stretched and lacks resources. To aid in the legislative decision process and proper channelizing of resources, we estimated and compared the countyâ€level change in prevalence rates of COVIDâ€19 by ruralâ€urban status over 3 weeks. Additionally, we identified hotspots based on estimated prevalence rates. METHODS: We used crowdsourced data on COVIDâ€19 and linked them to countyâ€level demographics, smoking rates, and chronic diseases. We fitted a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm in Râ€studio. We mapped the estimated prevalence rates using ArcGIS 10.8, and identified hotspots using Gettisâ€Ord local statistics. FINDINGS: In the rural counties, the mean prevalence of COVIDâ€19 increased from 3.6 per 100,000 population to 43.6 per 100,000 within 3 weeks from April 3 to April 22, 2020. In the urban counties, the median prevalence of COVIDâ€19 increased from 10.1 per 100,000 population to 107.6 per 100,000 within the same period. The COVIDâ€19 adjusted prevalence rates in rural counties were substantially elevated in counties with higher black populations, smoking rates, and obesity rates. Counties with high rates of people aged 25â€49 years had increased COVIDâ€19 prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show a rapid spread of COVIDâ€19 across urban and rural areas in 21 days. Studies based on quality data are needed to explain further the role of social determinants of health on COVIDâ€19 prevalence.
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