Quantitative Estimation of Covid-19 Related Unemployment On Suicide and Excess Mortality in the United States

Bhatia, R.

Introduction: To date, reducing virus transmission to mitigate demand on health care systems has been a singular objective of Covid-19 policy action. This aim has driven widespread and rapid application of untested policies to control contagion, including the deployment of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including travel restrictions, bans on gathering, and community-wide lockdowns. Risk models, public health experts and political leadership alike have given almost no attention to related, anticipated, and predictable societal and health impacts likely to result from behavioral responses to Covid-19 combined with the application of NPIs. Methods: This analysis demonstrates a standard risk assessment approach to quantify the impacts of Covid-19 unemployment in the United States on suicide and all cause mortality. Results: Applying observational epidemiological data to the population recently unemployed predicts 7444 deaths from suicide in the coming year and 556,000 avoidable deaths from all causes over the next ten years. Discussion: Indirect health impacts of societal responses to Covid-19 are likely and quantifiable. Decision-makers can now include indirect health impacts into their policy making calculus for Covid-19 to strike a balance between the benefits and costs of mitigation. A full trade-offs analysis of alternative planning scenarios will likely reveal multiple unconsidered ethical challenges that need transparent public discussion and solution.