Computational Evolutionary Methodology for Knowledge Discovery and Forecasting in Epidemiology and Medicine

Rao, Dhananjai M.; Chernyakhovsky, Alexander; Rao, Victoria

Humanity is facing an increasing number of highly virulent and communicable diseases such as avian influenza. Researchers believe that avian influenza has potential to evolve into one of the deadliest pandemics. Combating these diseases requires in‐depth knowledge of their epidemiology. An effective methodology for discovering epidemiological knowledge is to utilize a descriptive, evolutionary, ecological model and use bio‐simulations to study and analyze it. These types of bio‐simulations fall under the category of computational evolutionary methods because the individual entities participating in the simulation are permitted to evolve in a natural manner by reacting to changes in the simulated ecosystem. This work describes the application of the aforementioned methodology to discover epidemiological knowledge about avian influenza using a novel eco‐modeling and bio‐simulation environment called SEARUMS. The mathematical principles underlying SEARUMS, its design, and the procedure for using SEARUMS are discussed. The bio‐simulations and multi‐faceted case studies conducted using SEARUMS elucidate its ability to pinpoint timelines, epicenters, and socio‐economic impacts of avian influenza. This knowledge is invaluable for proactive deployment of countermeasures in order to minimize negative socioeconomic impacts, combat the disease, and avert a pandemic.