Author: Jouni T Tuomisto; Juha Yrjölä; Mikko Kolehmainen; Juhani Bonsdorff; Jami Pekkanen; Tero Tikkanen
Title: An agent-based epidemic model REINA for COVID-19 to identify destructive policies Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 9qdl3jt9_51
Snippet: Another mitigation scenario allows a larger epidemic (Figure 7) to keep the restriction days lower (111 RDI) than in Figure 6 (137 RDI). Also, a suppression scenario in Figure 8 is clearly less strict with mobility (72 RDI) but is able to keep the epidemic under control (600-700 deaths in a year). It is seen that the suppression strategy has lower mortality regardless of the fraction of asymptomatic cases. The difference is furthermore quite larg.....
Document: Another mitigation scenario allows a larger epidemic (Figure 7) to keep the restriction days lower (111 RDI) than in Figure 6 (137 RDI). Also, a suppression scenario in Figure 8 is clearly less strict with mobility (72 RDI) but is able to keep the epidemic under control (600-700 deaths in a year). It is seen that the suppression strategy has lower mortality regardless of the fraction of asymptomatic cases. The difference is furthermore quite large unless at least 90 percent of cases are asymptomatic -a fraction too large to receive support from currently available data (Ferguson, 2020 ; ECDC, 2020).
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