Place and underlying cause of death during the COVID19 pandemic: retrospective cohort study of 3.5 million deaths in England and Wales, 2014 to 2020

Wu, Jianhua; Mafham, Marion; Mamas, Mamas; Rashid, Muhammad; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Deanfield, John; Belder, Mark de; Gale, Chris P

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a high death toll. We aimed to describe the place and cause of death during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods This national death registry included all adult (aged [≥]18 years) deaths in England and Wales between 1st January 2014 and 30th June 2020. Analyses were based upon ICD-10 codes corresponding to the underlying cause of death as stated on the Medical Certificate of Cause of Death. Daily deaths during COVID-19 pandemic were compared against the expected daily deaths estimated using Farrington surveillance algorithm for daily historical data between 2014 and 2020, by place and cause of death. Findings Between 2nd March and 30th June 2020, there was an excess mortality of 57860 (a proportional increase of 35%) compared with the expected deaths, of which 50603 (86.2%) were COVID-19 related. Almost half the excess deaths occurred in care homes (25611 deaths) where deaths were 55% higher than expected. One fifth of the excess deaths occurred in hospital (15938 deaths; a proportional increase of 21%) with the remainder occurring at home (16190 deaths; a proportional increase of 39%). At home, only 14% of 16190 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, with 5 963 deaths due to cancer and 2485 deaths due to cardiac disease, very few of which involved COVID-19. In care homes or hospices, 61% of the 25611 excess deaths were related to COVID-19, 5539 of which were due to respiratory disease and most of these (4315 deaths) involved COVID-19. In hospital, there were 16174 fewer deaths than expected which did not involve COVID-19, and there were 4088 fewer deaths due to cancer and 1398 fewer deaths due to cardiac disease than expected. Interpretation The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a substantial increase in the absolute numbers of deaths occurring at home and care homes. There was a huge burden of excess deaths occurring in care homes, which were poorly characterised, and were likely to be, at least in part, the result of undiagnosed COVID-19. There was a smaller but important and ongoing excess in deaths at home, particularly from cancer and cardiac disease, which suggests avoidance of hospital care for non-COVID-19 conditions.