International trade resilience and the Covid-19 pandemic

Mena, Carlos; Karatzas, Antonios; Hansen, Carsten

The Covid-19 pandemic represents a low-probability, high-impact systemic risk that has severely disrupted international trade, reshaping the patterns of globalization. Drawing from the concept of supply chain resilience, which involves both the ability of a system to withstand an impact (robustness) and recover from it (responsiveness), we investigate country-level trade resilience during the 1st wave of the pandemic. By employing Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), we identify configurations of country-level factors, i.e., country profiles, based on their effectiveness in engendering trade resilience. These factors include social and economic globalization, logistics performance, healthcare preparedness, national government response, and income level. The results show how these factors coalesced to strengthen (or weaken) international trade resilience, contributing to a holistic understanding of the impact of the pandemic on international trade. The findings inform the post-Covid-19 debate on international trade, with implications for managers and policymakers.