Selected article for: "constant value and sick people number growth"
Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA
  • Document date: 2020_4_14
    • ID: fukn227t_65
    Snippet: It is clearly seen that after the first 2 weeks of the epidemic, the growth in the number of sick people slowed noticeably compared to the SIMR model with a constant value of β. It is natural to consider this as a consequence of the restrictive measures taken, leading to the decrease of β. A comparison of the theoretical and observed dependences I(t) shows a noticeable lag of the latter by about 14 days. This indicates a later onset of the peak.....
    Document: It is clearly seen that after the first 2 weeks of the epidemic, the growth in the number of sick people slowed noticeably compared to the SIMR model with a constant value of β. It is natural to consider this as a consequence of the restrictive measures taken, leading to the decrease of β. A comparison of the theoretical and observed dependences I(t) shows a noticeable lag of the latter by about 14 days. This indicates a later onset of the peak compared with the case of constant β, and the delay scale has already been determined, although it may slightly increase. Further, it is natural to assume that restrictive measures can only reduce the height of the maximum I(t), which for the theoretical curve is at the level of 120 thousand.

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