On predicting the novel COVID-19 human infections by using Infectious Disease modelling method in the Indian State of Tamil Nadu during 2020

Arsath Abbasali Ayubali; Sara Roshini Satheesh

In this analysis, the situation which has prevailed in the Chinese city of Wuhan and the outcome reports is considered as the base model. Therefore, while mapping the analysis to Tamil Nadu, the parameters have to be assigned with the data which will be in accordance with the current statistical data of Tamil Nadu region. According to the census report 2012 of Government, the population of Tamil Nadu was officially recorded as 67.86 million. Therefore, certain projected studies reveal that the population of Tamil Nadu in 2019 was 77, 177, 540 (The Director General, 2012). Therefore, in this analysis it is assumed that N = 77, 177, 540. When a susceptible human (S) is getting contact with that latent human (E) in a unit time ' ', the susceptible human can be infected with the virus having the most probability of getting infected. As a result, that latent human becoming a possible virus carrier (E).