Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic

Wei Aun Yap; Dhesi Baha Raja

Submaximal lockdowns have an unstable equilibrium and can tip in either direction resulting in diminished performance. This inherent instability makes it challenging for any party to be able to hit the right spot perfectly. However, smooth submaximal and high-frequency lockdown strategies allow for easier real-time calibration of intensity during the intervention. Further analysis would be required to identify the appropriate triggers from empirical surveillance findings on the ground to inform calibration during the intervention. Submaximal lockdowns do not need to have a fixed intensity throughout and the authors conjecture that a positively skewed gentle hill with a final bump to terminate local transmissions as the population approaches the minimum level of herd immunity may be ideal. Identifying this curved bimodal lockdown and calibration strategies is an area for further research.