Author: Ellen Brooks-Pollock; Jonathan M Read; Thomas House; Graham Medley; Matt J Keeling; Leon Danon
Title: The Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: mzcajw8c_3
Snippet: Despite the evidence of the importance of mass gatherings for disease transmission from intuition and individual outbreaks, the population-level impact of different mass gathering policies has not been established. While systematic reviews have identified outbreak reports involving mass gatherings [5, 6] , the overall impact of mass gatherings could not be quantitatively assessed. A detailed modelling study of disease transmission in the state of.....
Document: Despite the evidence of the importance of mass gatherings for disease transmission from intuition and individual outbreaks, the population-level impact of different mass gathering policies has not been established. While systematic reviews have identified outbreak reports involving mass gatherings [5, 6] , the overall impact of mass gatherings could not be quantitatively assessed. A detailed modelling study of disease transmission in the state of Georgia, USA, found that in extreme scenarios when 25% of the population participated in a 2day long gathering shortly before the epidemic peak, peak prevalence could increase by up to 10% [8] . More realistic scenarios resulted in minimal population-level changes [8] .
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