Understanding COVID-19 spreading through simulation modeling and scenarios comparison: preliminary results.

CESAR BORDEHORE; Miriam Navarro; Zaida Herrador; Eva S. Fonfria

Other models of the spreading of COVID-19 in Spain, e.g. Burgos-Simón et al (2020), did not compare scenarios of different actions to reduce the speed of spreading and stated that the peak would occur between 18 and 20 April, about 10 days after our calculations ( Figure 10 ). Arenas et al (2000) predicted ICU saturation from the end of March to the 23 April, although we did not represent the ICU patients, the peak of new infected people (Figure 10) is expected for the 8-9 April, so ICU higher demand will be concentrated from some weeks after that date, probably a couple of weeks after Arenas' model. Another model applied in Spain with data from 28 February with few dozens of cases (Aleta and Moreno, 2020) expressed the necessity of early detection of positive cases with symptoms. But from our point of view, due to the incubation period when the patient is contagious and the great percentage of asymptomatic and subclinical cases, that strategy would have been not enough to stop the spread of this disease, now a pandemic.