Selected article for: "initial spread and virus initial spread"
Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA
  • Document date: 2020_4_14
    • ID: fukn227t_59
    Snippet: We assume that the probability of a virus mutation is its internal property, does not depend on factors of external influence, and therefore can be directly taken from the Wuhan data in all cases: m=0.39. The time of exit from the disease is on average constant, determined by the average level of immunity and is 12-14 days. This corresponds to the rate value is about γ=0.07 and will be a bit varied for different countries for best fitting. The e.....
    Document: We assume that the probability of a virus mutation is its internal property, does not depend on factors of external influence, and therefore can be directly taken from the Wuhan data in all cases: m=0.39. The time of exit from the disease is on average constant, determined by the average level of immunity and is 12-14 days. This corresponds to the rate value is about γ=0.07 and will be a bit varied for different countries for best fitting. The exception when this parameter is noticeably smaller is Italy, which have a large percentage of the elderly population with weakened immunity due to age. Thus, the expression for the increment of the dependence I(t), having the form of α = (1 − m) β−γ, allows to find the initial spread rate of the virus β from the established values of α,γ, and m.

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