Selected article for: "disease exit rate parameter value and model graph"
Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA
  • Document date: 2020_4_14
    • ID: fukn227t_69
    Snippet: The initial value of the increment is obtained from the number of sick people on 09.03.2020,I(0) = 1169 and after 10 days -on 19.03.2020, I(10) = 16139 [3]. Hence, the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 16139 1169 = 0.26. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.06, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β − γ, gives an estimate of the initial virus s.....
    Document: The initial value of the increment is obtained from the number of sick people on 09.03.2020,I(0) = 1169 and after 10 days -on 19.03.2020, I(10) = 16139 [3]. Hence, the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 16139 1169 = 0.26. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.06, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β − γ, gives an estimate of the initial virus spread rate at the start of the epidemic: β = 0.26+0.06 1−0.39 = 0.52. It is this value of that leads to the model graph in the Fig.5 .

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