How disease risk awareness modulates transmission: coupling infectious disease models with behavioral dynamics

Cascante-Vega, J.; Torres-Florez, S.; Cordovez, J.; Santos-Vega, M.

Epidemiological models often assume that individuals do not change their behavior or that those aspects are implicitly incorporated in parameters in the models. Typically these assumption is included in the contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals. For example models incorporate time variable contact rates to account for the effect of behavior or other interventions than in general terms reduce transmission. However, adaptive behaviors are expected to emerge and to play an important role in the transmission dynamics across populations. Here, we propose a theoretical framework to couple transmission dynamics with behavioral dynamics due to infection awareness. We first model the dynamics of social behavior by using a game theory framework. Then we coupled the model with an epidemiological model that captures the disease dynamics by assuming that individuals are more aware of that epidemiological state (i.e. fraction of infected individuals) and reduces their contacts. Our results from a mechanistic modeling framework show that as individuals increase their awareness the steady-state value of the final fraction of infected individuals in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model decreases. We also extend our results to a spatial framework, incorporating a spatially-defined theoretical contact network (social network) and we made the awareness parameter dependent on a global or local contact structure. Our results show that even when individuals increase their awareness of the disease, the spatial structure itself defines the steady state solution of the system, in which more connected networks (networks with random or constant degree distributions) results in a population with no change in their behavior. Our work then shows that explicitly incorporating dynamics about the behavioral response dynamics might significantly change the predicted course of the epidemic and therefore highlights the importance of accounting for this source of variation in the epidemiological models.