Author: Zhong Zheng; Ke Wu; Zhixian Yao; Junhua Zheng; Jian Chen
Title: The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: ha9fn3pr_34
Snippet: Given the punchy transmissibility of COVID-19 [15] , isolation and quarantine are undoubtedly the primary options [11] . Subsequently, the model of this epidemic sprouted out a lot. Ziff et al. established a model of death cases and reported that death cases follow three patterns: exponential growth, power-law behavior, and then exponential decline in the daily rate [16] . Nevertheless, deaths are affected by many factors, such as age [17, 18] . .....
Document: Given the punchy transmissibility of COVID-19 [15] , isolation and quarantine are undoubtedly the primary options [11] . Subsequently, the model of this epidemic sprouted out a lot. Ziff et al. established a model of death cases and reported that death cases follow three patterns: exponential growth, power-law behavior, and then exponential decline in the daily rate [16] . Nevertheless, deaths are affected by many factors, such as age [17, 18] . More attention should be paid to the number of new cases, and the rate of increment, attributed to the effect of epidemic prevention and control, can be evaluated to guide the date of return to work.
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