Author: Conte, M. N.; Gordon, M.; Sims, C.
Title: Quarantine fatigue thins fat-tailed coronavirus impacts in U.S. cities by making epidemics inevitable Cord-id: 7r4awyxr Document date: 2021_1_8
ID: 7r4awyxr
Snippet: We use detailed location data to show that contact rates in most U.S. cities are fat tailed, suggesting that the fat tails previously documented in a small number of case studies are widespread. We integrate these results into a stochastic compartmental model to show that COVID-19 impacts were also fat tailed for many large U.S. cities for several weeks in the spring and summer. Due to thresholds in epidemiological dynamics, fat-tailed impacts would have been more prevalent if not for the gradua
Document: We use detailed location data to show that contact rates in most U.S. cities are fat tailed, suggesting that the fat tails previously documented in a small number of case studies are widespread. We integrate these results into a stochastic compartmental model to show that COVID-19 impacts were also fat tailed for many large U.S. cities for several weeks in the spring and summer. Due to thresholds in epidemiological dynamics, fat-tailed impacts would have been more prevalent if not for the gradual increase in contact rates throughout the summer that made an outbreak more certain.
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