Temporal and geographical variation of COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rate in Brazil

Portella, T. P.; Mortara, S. R.; Lopes, R.; Sanchez-Tapia, A.; Donalisio, M. R.; Castro, M. C.; Venturieri, V. R.; Estevam, C. G.; Ribeiro, A. F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Veras, M. A. S. M.; Prado, P. I.; Kraenkel, R. A.

Background: Previous studies have shown that COVID-19 In-Hospital Fatality Rate (IHFR) varies between regions and has been diminishing over time. It is believed that the continuous improvement in the treatment of patients, age group of hospitalized, and the availability of hospital resources might be affecting the temporal and regional variation of IHFR. In this study, we explored how the IHFR varied along time and among age groups and federative states in Brazil. In addition, we also assessed the relationship between hospital structure availability and peaks of IHFR. Methods: A retrospective analysis of all COVID-19 hospitalizations with confirmed outcomes in 21 states between March 01 and September 22, 2020 (N=345,281) was done. We fit GLM binomial models with additive and interaction effects between age groups, epidemiological weeks, and states. We also evaluated the association between the modeled peak of IHFR in each state and the variables of hospital structure using the Spearman rank correlation test. Results: We found that the temporal variation of the IHFR was heterogeneous among the states, and in general it followed the temporal trends in hospitalizations. In addition, the peak of IHFR was higher in states with a smaller number of doctors and intensivists, and in states in which a higher percentage of people relied on the Public Health System (SUS) for medical care. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the pressure over the healthcare system is affecting the temporal trends of IHFR in Brazil.