Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_92
Snippet: At present, many countries around the world are overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, which calls for global efforts. While our method is able to depict and predict the trend of an epidemic at a very early stage, it can be used to predict the current COVID-19 epidemic internationally, or any other new, unknown, explosive epidemic in the future. We believe that the prediction results of this method can provide decision support for epidemics contro.....
Document: At present, many countries around the world are overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, which calls for global efforts. While our method is able to depict and predict the trend of an epidemic at a very early stage, it can be used to predict the current COVID-19 epidemic internationally, or any other new, unknown, explosive epidemic in the future. We believe that the prediction results of this method can provide decision support for epidemics control and intervention. It is worth noticing that, due to the short-term dependence of our method, our model may show poor performance for wildly fluctuating data. Thus, more data preprocessing methods like data smoothing need to be developed within our framework, in order to get a wider use of our method.
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