Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation

Isobel Routledge; Shengjie Lai; Katherine E Battle; Azra C Ghani; Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez; Kyle B Gustafson; Swapnil Mishra; Joshua L Proctor; Andrew J Tatem; Zhongjie Li; Samir Bhatt

Mapping 383 Transmission risk map estimates were constructed by separating individual reproduction numbers 384 into those above and below = 1 The latitude and longitude of the reproduction numbers were 385 included in a binomial Gaussian random field model implemented in rINLA 37 , in which demographic 386 and environmental covariates (Supplementary Table 5 ) were used to estimate the likelihood of a 387 case having > 0 in the area each year from 2011 to 2016. This is a measure of malaria 388 "receptivity" or underlying transmission potential rather than overall malaria risk, as importation 389 likelihood is not quantified in this analysis. Area under the curve (AUC) scores from leave-one-out 390 cross validation were used to assess model fit (Supplementary Figure 8) . 391 392 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. For seasonal and holiday effects the y axis shows the percentage increase or decrease in R c predicted 490