Municipality- level predictors of COVID-19 mortality in Mexico: a cautionary tale

Contreras-Manzano, A.; Guerrero-Lopez, C. M.; Aguerrebere, M.; Sedas, A. C.; Lamadrid-Figueroa, H.

Background. Inequalities and burden of comorbidities of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vary importantly inside the countries. We aimed to analyze the Municipality-level factors associated with a high COVID-19 mortality rate of in Mexico. Methods. We retrieved information from 142,643 cumulative confirmed symptomatic cases and 18,886 deaths of COVID-19 as of June 20th, 2020 from the publicly available database of the Ministry of Health of Mexico. Public official data of the most recent census and surveys of the country were used to adjust a negative binomial regression model with the quintiles (Q) of the distribution of sociodemographic and health outcomes among 2,457 Municipality-level. Expected Mortality Rates (EMR), Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and 95% Confidence Intervals are reported. Results. Factors associated with high MR of COVID-19, relative to Quintile 1 (Q1), were; diabetes prevalence (Q4, IRR=2.60), obesity prevalence (Q5, IRR=1.93), diabetes mortality rate (Q5, IRR=1.58), proportion of indigenous population (Q2, IRR=1.68), proportion of economically active population (Q5, IRR=1.50), density of economic units that operate essential activities (Q4, IRR=1.54) and population density (Q5, IRR=2.12). We identified 1,351 Municipality-level without confirmed COVID-19 deaths, of which, 202 had nevertheless high (Q4, Mean EMR= 8.0 deaths per 100,000) and 82 very high expected COVID-19 mortality (Q5, Mean EMR= 13.8 deaths per 100,000). Conclusion. This study identified 1,351 Municipality-level of Mexico that, in spite of not having confirmed COVID-19 deaths yet, share characteristics that could eventually lead to a high mortality scenario later in the epidemic and warn against premature easing of mobility restrictions. Local information should be used to reinforce strategies of prevention and control of outbreaks in communities vulnerable to COVID-19. Keywords: COVID-19; risk factors; social determinants; health determinants; Municipality-level; counties.