Author: Antoine Kevorkian; Thierry Grenet; Hubert Gallee
Title: Tracking the Covid-19 pandemic : Simple visualization of the epidemic states and trajectories of select European countries & assessing the effects of delays in official response. Document date: 2020_3_17
ID: 5u04irwz_14
Snippet: Our approach thus provides guideline estimates based on the currently available data. It demonstrates how sharply the confirmed cases and the corresponding death toll will increase, as both France and Italy waited longer than China before taking lockdown actions. For Italy alone, the 10-day lag compared to China may engender approximately three times more deaths. In addition, Germany and Spain appear to be at a similar stage in epidemic progressi.....
Document: Our approach thus provides guideline estimates based on the currently available data. It demonstrates how sharply the confirmed cases and the corresponding death toll will increase, as both France and Italy waited longer than China before taking lockdown actions. For Italy alone, the 10-day lag compared to China may engender approximately three times more deaths. In addition, Germany and Spain appear to be at a similar stage in epidemic progression, indicating that the total death toll in Europe will far exceed China's death toll.
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