Author: Peter X Song; Lili Wang; Yiwang Zhou; Jie He; Bin Zhu; Fei Wang; Lu Tang; Marisa Eisenberg
Title: An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: m9icky9z_19
Snippet: An alternative way to incorporate quarantine measures into the basic epidemiological model (4) is to add a new quarantine compartment that collects quarantined individuals who would have no chance of meeting any infected individuals in the infection system, as shown in Figure 5 . This model allows to characterize time-varying proportions of susceptible cases due largely to the governmentenforced stringent in-home isolation outside of Hubei provin.....
Document: An alternative way to incorporate quarantine measures into the basic epidemiological model (4) is to add a new quarantine compartment that collects quarantined individuals who would have no chance of meeting any infected individuals in the infection system, as shown in Figure 5 . This model allows to characterize time-varying proportions of susceptible cases due largely to the governmentenforced stringent in-home isolation outside of Hubei province. The basic SIR model in equation (4) is then extended by adding a quarantine compartment with a time-varying rate of quarantine φptq, which is the chance of a susceptible person being willing to take in-home isolation at time t. The extended SIR takes the following 4-dimensional latent process pθ S t , θ Q t , θ I t , θ R t q J :
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