Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: embnko1q_47
Snippet: Although population-level quarantining does not directly affect the individual mortality M 1 (t|τ 1 ) orM 1 (t), it can be easily incorporated into the SIR-type population dynamics equations through changes in β(τ, t)S(t). For example, we have set S(t > t q ) = 0 to represent implementation of a quarantine after t q = 50 days of the outbreak. After t q = 50 days, no new infections occur and the estimates CFR d (t, τ res ) and M 0 p (t) start .....
Document: Although population-level quarantining does not directly affect the individual mortality M 1 (t|τ 1 ) orM 1 (t), it can be easily incorporated into the SIR-type population dynamics equations through changes in β(τ, t)S(t). For example, we have set S(t > t q ) = 0 to represent implementation of a quarantine after t q = 50 days of the outbreak. After t q = 50 days, no new infections occur and the estimates CFR d (t, τ res ) and M 0 p (t) start converging immediately towards their steady-state values (see Fig. 3(d) ). Since the number of deaths decreases after the implementation of quarantine measures, the delayed CFR d (t, τ res = 17) is first decreasing until t = t q + τ res = 67. For t > 67, the CFR d (t, τ res = 17) measures no new cases and is thus equal to the CFR.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- death number and new case: 1, 2
- death number and new infection: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- death number and population level: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
- death number and SIR type: 1, 2
- individual mortality and new case: 1
- individual mortality and new infection: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- individual mortality and population dynamic: 1, 2, 3, 4
- individual mortality and population level: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
- individual mortality and SIR type: 1
- new case and population level: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
- new case and SIR type: 1
- new case measure and population level: 1
- new infection and population dynamic: 1, 2, 3, 4
- new infection and population level: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- new infection and quarantine implementation: 1
- population level and quarantine implementation: 1
- population level and quarantine measure: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date