Analysis of the second wave of COVID-19 in India based on SEIR model

Gopal, R.; Chandrasekar, V. K.; Lakshmanan, M.

India is under a grave threat from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The situation is rather gloomy as the number of infected individuals/active cases is increasing alarmingly compared to the first peak. Indian government/state governments are implementing various control measures such as lock-downs, setting up new hospitals, and putting travel restrictions at various stages to lighten the virus spread from the initial outbreak of the pandemic. Recently, we have studied the SEIR dynamic modelling of the epidemic evolution of COVID-19 in India (CURRENT SCIENCE, Vol. 120, pp. 1342 (2021)) with the help of appropriate parameters quantifying the various governmental actions and the intensity of individual reactions. Our analysis had predicted the scenario of the first wave quite well. In this present article, we extend our analysis to estimate the number of infected individuals in the ongoing second wave of COVID-19 in India with the help of the above SEIR model. Our findings show that the people's individual effort is the most important factor to control the pandemic in the present situation as well as in the future. We also indicate the possibility for a third wave.