Author: Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra; Andreu Comas-Garcia; Esteban Hernandez-Vargas; Mario Santana-Cibrian; Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez
Title: The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: aiq6ejcq_81
Snippet: • Figure 18 highlights the importance of beginning isolation early T θ = 31 (March 23rd). Our model indicates that delaying action by one or two weeks will let the outbreak grow with a significant increase in cases. Figure 16 shows, however, that isolation is not enough to lower the size of the outbreak but that a significant reduction in transmission rate is also needed. Both control measures have to be applied simultaneously to be efficient .....
Document: • Figure 18 highlights the importance of beginning isolation early T θ = 31 (March 23rd). Our model indicates that delaying action by one or two weeks will let the outbreak grow with a significant increase in cases. Figure 16 shows, however, that isolation is not enough to lower the size of the outbreak but that a significant reduction in transmission rate is also needed. Both control measures have to be applied simultaneously to be efficient in flattening the epidemic curve. We remark that simulations in both, are for a transmission rate reduction achieved in θ = 7 days. Figure 17 shows that for longer times, the total number of cases will increase.
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