Author: Sangeeta Bhatia; Britta Lassmann; Emily Cohn; Malwina Carrion; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Mark Herringer; John Brownstein; Larry Madoff; Anne Cori; Pierre Nouvellet
Title: Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study Document date: 2019_11_15
ID: jwesa12u_317
Snippet: For a given threshold (x th percentile of the forecast interval), we defined a True alert for a week where the x th percentile of the forecast interval and the observed incidence for a country were both greater than 0; false alert for a week where the threshold for a country was greater than 0 but the observed incidence for that country was 0; and missed alert for a week where the threshold for a country was 0 but the observed incidence for that .....
Document: For a given threshold (x th percentile of the forecast interval), we defined a True alert for a week where the x th percentile of the forecast interval and the observed incidence for a country were both greater than 0; false alert for a week where the threshold for a country was greater than 0 but the observed incidence for that country was 0; and missed alert for a week where the threshold for a country was 0 but the observed incidence for that country was greater than 0. True alert rate is the ratio of correctly classified true alerts to the total number of true and missed alerts (i.e., (true alerts)/(true alerts + missed alerts)). False alert rate is similarly the ratio of false alerts to the total number of false alerts and weeks of no alert (where the observed and the threshold incidence are both 0).
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