Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: embnko1q_18
Snippet: Using these numbers, the recovery and death rate functions c(τ, t|τ 1 ) and µ(τ |τ 1 ) are plotted as functions of τ in Fig. 2(b) . We show the evolution of M 1 (t|τ 1 ) at different values of τ 1 in Fig. 2(c) . The corresponding long-time limit M 1 (∞) is readily apparent in Fig. 2 (d): for τ 1 ≥ τ inc , M 1 (∞) = µ 1 /(µ 1 +c) ≈ 0.105, while M 1 (∞) < µ 1 /(µ 1 +c) when τ 1 < τ inc . The smaller expected mortality asso.....
Document: Using these numbers, the recovery and death rate functions c(τ, t|τ 1 ) and µ(τ |τ 1 ) are plotted as functions of τ in Fig. 2(b) . We show the evolution of M 1 (t|τ 1 ) at different values of τ 1 in Fig. 2(c) . The corresponding long-time limit M 1 (∞) is readily apparent in Fig. 2 (d): for τ 1 ≥ τ inc , M 1 (∞) = µ 1 /(µ 1 +c) ≈ 0.105, while M 1 (∞) < µ 1 /(µ 1 +c) when τ 1 < τ inc . The smaller expected mortality associated with early identification of infection arises from the remaining incubation time during which the patient has a chance to recover without possibility of death. When conditioned on testing positive at or after the incubation period, the patient immediately suffers a positive death rate, increasing his M 1 (∞).
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