Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: embnko1q_27
Snippet: While individual mortalities can be estimated by tracking many individuals from infection to recovery or death, oftentimes, the available data are not resolved at the individual level and only total populations are given. Typically, one has the total number of cases accumulated up to time t, N (t), the number of deaths to date D(t), and the number of cured/recovered patients to date R(t) (see Fig. 1 ). The CFR is simply D(t)/N (t). Note that N (t.....
Document: While individual mortalities can be estimated by tracking many individuals from infection to recovery or death, oftentimes, the available data are not resolved at the individual level and only total populations are given. Typically, one has the total number of cases accumulated up to time t, N (t), the number of deaths to date D(t), and the number of cured/recovered patients to date R(t) (see Fig. 1 ). The CFR is simply D(t)/N (t). Note that N (t) includes unresolved cases and that N (t) ≥ R(t) + D(t). Resolution (death or recovery) of all patients, N (∞) = R(∞) + D(∞), occurs only well after the epidemic passes.
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