Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: embnko1q_52
Snippet: Besides accurate cohort data, for which at present there are few for coronavirus, cumulative population data has been used to estimate the mortality ratio. The metrics M 0 p (t) and CFR(t) are based on these aggregate populations but implicitly depend on new infections and the transmission rate β. Despite this confounding factor, M 0 p (t) and CFR d (t, τ res ) approach e −cτinc µ 1 /(µ 1 + c) as t → ∞, where e −cτinc is the probabi.....
Document: Besides accurate cohort data, for which at present there are few for coronavirus, cumulative population data has been used to estimate the mortality ratio. The metrics M 0 p (t) and CFR(t) are based on these aggregate populations but implicitly depend on new infections and the transmission rate β. Despite this confounding factor, M 0 p (t) and CFR d (t, Ï„ res ) approach e −cÏ„inc µ 1 /(µ 1 + c) as t → ∞, where e −cÏ„inc is the probability that no recovery occurred during the incubation time Ï„ inc . Based on these results, we can establish the following connection between the different mortality ratios for initial infection times with distribution Ï(Ï„ 1 ; n, γ) and meanÏ„ = n/γ:
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