Selected article for: "China epidemic and model assumption"
Author: Gerry Killeen; Samson Kiware
Title: Why lockdown? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the novel coronavirus
  • Document date: 2020_4_20
    • ID: io2f52kn_6
    Snippet: Assumed input parameters values were chosen to be representative of the United Republic of Tanzania (Table 1) , because it has experienced relatively modest inbound air traffic from China 54, 55 and is still early enough in its epidemic cycle and response for a national catastrophe to be averted. Tanzania has also had more opportunity to learn from ongoing experiences in Asia, Europe and north America, and prepare by establishing testing capacity.....
    Document: Assumed input parameters values were chosen to be representative of the United Republic of Tanzania (Table 1) , because it has experienced relatively modest inbound air traffic from China 54, 55 and is still early enough in its epidemic cycle and response for a national catastrophe to be averted. Tanzania has also had more opportunity to learn from ongoing experiences in Asia, Europe and north America, and prepare by establishing testing capacity at the outset of the national epidemic, more consistent with that simplifying assumption of the model than Asian and European countries affected earlier in the pandemic would be. Tanzania is also a typically vulnerable, low-income African country, 55-60 which had only 38 ICU beds in all four national referral hospitals combined in 2019, 61 and is representative of the pandemic that is now imminent all across Africa. 56,62

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