Author: B Shayak; Mohit Manoj Sharma; Richard H Rand; Awadhesh Kumar Singh; Anoop Misra
Title: Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 and Impact on Public Health Policy Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: 3ueg2i6w_19
Snippet: In Section 1 of this work, we construct a lumped-parameter dynamic model of the transmission of COVID-19 which accounts for this novel feature of the Coronavirus. In Section 2, we validate the model using test cases. In Section 3 we use the model to predict the effects of the delays as well as to analyse the consequences of imposing harsh social restrictions such as lockdowns for a limited period of time. We wrap things up with a Conclusion. §1 .....
Document: In Section 1 of this work, we construct a lumped-parameter dynamic model of the transmission of COVID-19 which accounts for this novel feature of the Coronavirus. In Section 2, we validate the model using test cases. In Section 3 we use the model to predict the effects of the delays as well as to analyse the consequences of imposing harsh social restrictions such as lockdowns for a limited period of time. We wrap things up with a Conclusion. §1 CORONAVIRUS DYNAMIC MODEL We focus on the time evolution of the epidemic in one localized region, for example a city, district or county, which has sufficient inter-mixing of its population but zero or limited interaction with outside locations. Our basic model is derived from traditional S-I-R models but we have made some important changes to account for the unique nature of this disease. Specifically, we must be able to account for the following features :
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