Author: B Shayak; Mohit Manoj Sharma; Richard H Rand; Awadhesh Kumar Singh; Anoop Misra
Title: Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 and Impact on Public Health Policy Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: 3ueg2i6w_59
Snippet: We now consider the effect of imposing lockdowns on the spread of the disease. Recall that the degree of social mixing is represented by the parameter k0. The benchmark results of Figs. 2 and 6 are obtained for k0 = 0.0008, and we have already seen that reducing this parameter improves the time history of spread of the disease. We assume a value of k0 = 0.0005 during a lockdown phase. If this figure is maintained throughout the 100-day period the.....
Document: We now consider the effect of imposing lockdowns on the spread of the disease. Recall that the degree of social mixing is represented by the parameter k0. The benchmark results of Figs. 2 and 6 are obtained for k0 = 0.0008, and we have already seen that reducing this parameter improves the time history of spread of the disease. We assume a value of k0 = 0.0005 during a lockdown phase. If this figure is maintained throughout the 100-day period then there is almost no spread of the epidemic with 98 percent of healthy at large population remaining at the end of the period. However, an indefinite lockdown from start to stop is unrealistic and impossible to implement. A practical lockdown must be of a limited duration. Accordingly, we consider the effects of a 15-day lockdown being implemented at various stages in the progress of the disease.
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