Retrospective in silico HLA predictions from COVID-19 patients reveal alleles associated with disease prognosis

Warren, René L.; Birol, Inanç

BACKGROUND: The Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) gene locus plays a fundamental role in human immunity, and it is established that certain HLA alleles are disease determinants. METHODS: By combining the predictive power of multiple in silico HLA predictors, we have previously identified prevalent HLA class I and class II alleles, including DPA1*02:02, in two small cohorts at the COVID-19 pandemic onset. Since then, newer and larger patient cohorts with controls and associated demographic and clinical data have been deposited in public repositories. Here, we report on HLA-I and HLA-II alleles, along with their associated risk significance in one such cohort of 126 patients, including COVID-19 positive (n=100) and negative patients (n=26). RESULTS: We recapitulate an enrichment of DPA1*02:02 in the COVID-19 positive cohort (29%) when compared to the COVID-negative control group (Fisher’s exact test [FET] p=0.0174). Having this allele, however, does not appear to put this cohort’s patients at an increased risk of hospitalization. Inspection of COVID-19 disease severity outcomes reveal nominally significant risk associations with A*11:01 (FET p=0.0078), C*04:01 (FET p=0.0087) and DQA1*01:02 (FET p=0.0121). CONCLUSIONS: While enrichment of these alleles falls below statistical significance after Bonferroni correction, COVID-19 patients with the latter three alleles tend to fare worse overall. This is especially evident for patients with C*04:01, where disease prognosis measured by mechanical ventilation-free days was statistically significant after multiple hypothesis correction (Bonferroni p = 0.0023), and may hold potential clinical value.