A Simple Mathematical Framework for Estimating Risk of Airborne Transmission of COVID-19 with Application to Facemask Use and Social Distancing

Mittal, Rajat

A simple mathematical model for estimating the risk of airborne transmission of a respiratory infection such as COVID-19, is presented. The model employs basic concepts from fluid dynamics and incorporates the known scope of factors involved in the airborne transmission of such diseases. Simplicity in the mathematical form of the model is by design, so that it can serve not only as a common basis for scientific inquiry across disciplinary boundaries, but, also be understandable by a broad audience outside science and academia. The model is used to assess the protection from transmission afforded by face coverings made from a variety of fabrics. In addition, the reduction in transmission associated with physical distancing between the host and susceptible as well as the level of physical activity of the host and/or the susceptible in enhancing transmission risk, is also examined.