Author: Justin D Silverman; Alex D Washburne
Title: Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States Document date: 2020_4_3
ID: 17oac3bg_46
Snippet: Growth rates were estimated for the US and Italy by poisson generalized linear models predicting new deaths with date. Data on COVID deaths in the US were obtained from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data on April 6, 2020 and all deaths from March 5, 2020 to April 1, 2020, were summed by date. Initially, April 2-5 were included but were found to have extremely high leverage and were hence excluded from our analysis. Data on COVID deaths in I.....
Document: Growth rates were estimated for the US and Italy by poisson generalized linear models predicting new deaths with date. Data on COVID deaths in the US were obtained from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data on April 6, 2020 and all deaths from March 5, 2020 to April 1, 2020, were summed by date. Initially, April 2-5 were included but were found to have extremely high leverage and were hence excluded from our analysis. Data on COVID deaths in Italy were obtained from 265 https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19. The same procedure was applied, focusing on deaths from February 24 until March 12. The slope from poisson regression was used as the estimated exponential growth rate, yielding a US growth rate r U S = 0.23 or a 3.01 day doubling time and r IT = 0.26 or a 2.65 day doubling time.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- COVID death and double time: 1
- COVID death and exponential growth rate: 1, 2, 3, 4
- COVID death and growth rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21
- COVID death and Italy COVID death: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23
- COVID death and Italy estimate: 1, 2
- COVID death and linear model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19
- COVID death and new death: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50
- COVID death and poisson regression: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41
- date new death and new death: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date