Author: Justin D Silverman; Alex D Washburne
Title: Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States Document date: 2020_4_3
ID: 17oac3bg_46
Snippet: Growth rates were estimated for the US and Italy by poisson generalized linear models predicting new deaths with date. Data on COVID deaths in the US were obtained from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data on April 6, 2020 and all deaths from March 5, 2020 to April 1, 2020, were summed by date. Initially, April 2-5 were included but were found to have extremely high leverage and were hence excluded from our analysis. Data on COVID deaths in I.....
Document: Growth rates were estimated for the US and Italy by poisson generalized linear models predicting new deaths with date. Data on COVID deaths in the US were obtained from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data on April 6, 2020 and all deaths from March 5, 2020 to April 1, 2020, were summed by date. Initially, April 2-5 were included but were found to have extremely high leverage and were hence excluded from our analysis. Data on COVID deaths in Italy were obtained from 265 https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19. The same procedure was applied, focusing on deaths from February 24 until March 12. The slope from poisson regression was used as the estimated exponential growth rate, yielding a US growth rate r U S = 0.23 or a 3.01 day doubling time and r IT = 0.26 or a 2.65 day doubling time.
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