Optimal control and sensitivity analysis for transmission dynamics of Coronavirus

Deressa, Chernet Tuge; Mussa, Yesuf Obsie; Duressa, Gemechis File

Analysis of mathematical models designed for COVID-19 results in several important outputs that may help stakeholders to answer disease control policy questions. A mathematical model for COVID-19 is developed and equilibrium points are shown to be locally and globally stable. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number (R(0)) showed that the rate of transmission from asymptomatically infected cases to susceptible cases is the most sensitive parameter. Numerical simulation indicated that a 10% reduction of R(0) by reducing the most sensitive parameter results in a 24% reduction of the size of exposed cases. Optimal control analysis revealed that the optimal practice of combining all three (public health education, personal protective measure, and treating COVID-19 patients) intervention strategies or combination of any two of them leads to the required mitigation of transmission of the pandemic.