COVID-19 Pandemic Analysis

van Lint, V. A. J.

The development of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths in selected nations and states is compared to the result of calculations using a conventional SEIR model of pandemic development. The model is based on the infection multiplier, R0, defined as the number of people infected by each infectious person. The infection rate increases exponentially when R0 >1.0; it remains constant at R0 = 1.0 and decreases for R0 < 1.0. R0 is determined by population behavior (frequency and proximity of interactions) and the ease by which a victim is infected by an infectious person (virus' virulence). It is reduced by herd immunity when a large fraction of the population acquires immunity by vaccination or by recovering from infection. The daily death rates in the U.S. and northern Europe exhibited peaks in April/May 2020 and Dec. 2020/Jan. 2021 with more a modest rate during the summer of 2020 and a gradually decreasing rate since Jan. 2021. The model produces this type of oscillatory response if it assumes that the population's R0 responds to information reported about the pandemic, but with a delay between infections and resulting behavioral adjustments. Oscillatory behavior is typical of a control loop with delay in its feedback. The analysis concludes that: Given the history of R0 the model predicts the development of pandemic deaths. However, since R0 is determined by the population's behavior, control of the pandemic in democracies depends primarily on preparation and the persuasive power of political and scientific authorities. Data for S. Korea and New Zealand demonstrate the effectiveness of such methods. For each death in the U.S. about 169 persons were infected, but fewer than half of them were identified as cases. The pandemic was prolonged in the U.S. because the population chose to keep R0 near 1.0 by relaxing restrictions once the death rate subsided. Initial values of R0 as high as 5.0 were observed, leading to infections doubling about every 2 days. If unabated, the resulting exponential growth increases the infected population by a factor of about 5000 before the death from the first infections is recorded. Arrival from Italy probably initiated the pandemic in the eastern U.S., but, by the time the first death was recorded the number of domestic infections exceeded by far those that were imported. Import restrictions beyond this point are ineffective except in delaying the arrival of more virulent mutations. If no social restrictions had been adopted, approximately 1.6 million deaths would have resulted in the U.S. The vaccine, although developed and deployed at record speed, was too late to ameliorate this result. A third peak in death rate in Sept. 2021 may be prevented if more than 80% of the population is vaccinated.