Trends in Transmissibility of 2019 Novel Coronavirus-infected Pneumonia in Wuhan and 29 Provinces in China

Huazhen Lin; Wei Liu; Hong Gao; Jinyu Nie; Qiao Fan

Figures 5(a) and 5(b) displays the estimators of η t and R t , as well as their 251 95% CI, respectively, for Wuhan. The reproduction number R t decreased the changes of diagnosis criteria, the predicted cases were not comparable after February 13. However, as mentioned above, the estimated trend was 257 still informative to predict the turning point. Thus we estimate that the date 258 of containment would be around February 29, 2020 in Wuhan (Figure 5(c) ). could be in earlier January with sparse data. In our study, the initial R t 288 was estimated at 4.9 on January 21 and even higher at 8.13 before this date 289 (data not shown), larger than the estimation in other places as expected. We 290 also observed that the ratio for transmission rates decreased from January to prevent the spread of diseases. 313 We forecasted that COVID-19 will be contained across provinces around