Author: Justin D Silverman; Alex D Washburne
Title: Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States Document date: 2020_4_3
ID: 17oac3bg_8
Snippet: The rate at which SARS-CoV-2+ patients with ILI symptoms are identified as having COVID varies by state and over time (Figure S2 ). Our estimated syndromic case detection rates have been 100 increasing over the month of March, which can be expected given increases in testing capacity across the US since the February 28 detection of community transmission in Washington State. For the week ending March 14, COVID cases in the states with the highest.....
Document: The rate at which SARS-CoV-2+ patients with ILI symptoms are identified as having COVID varies by state and over time (Figure S2 ). Our estimated syndromic case detection rates have been 100 increasing over the month of March, which can be expected given increases in testing capacity across the US since the February 28 detection of community transmission in Washington State. For the week ending March 14, COVID cases in the states with the highest estimated syndromic case detection rate (Washington, Nevada, and Michigan) are only capturing approximately 1% of ILI surges in those states ( Figure 2 ). In the last week ending on March 28, we estimate the 105 detection rate across the US increased to be 1.5% (95% credible interval 1.2%-1.9%).
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