Risk Factors for Pneumonia and Death in Adult Patients With Seasonal Influenza and Establishment of Prediction Scores: A Population-Based Study

Miyashita, Koichi; Nakatani, Eiji; Hozumi, Hironao; Sato, Yoko; Miyachi, Yoshiki; Suda, Takafumi

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza remains a global health problem; however, there are limited data on the specific relative risks for pneumonia and death among outpatients considered to be at high risk for influenza complications. This population-based study aimed to develop prediction models for determining the risk of influenza-related pneumonia and death. METHODS: We included patients diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2016 and 2017 (main cohort, n = 25 659), those diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 (validation cohort 1, n = 16 727), and those diagnosed between 2017 and 2018 (validation cohort 2, n = 34 219). Prediction scores were developed based on the incidence and independent predictors of pneumonia and death identified using multivariate analyses, and patients were categorized into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on total scores. RESULTS: In the main cohort, age, gender, and certain comorbidities (dementia, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and others) were independent predictors of pneumonia and death. The 28-day pneumonia incidence was 0.5%, 4.1%, and 10.8% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.75); the 28-day mortality was 0.05%, 0.7%, and 3.3% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.85). In validation cohort 1, c-indices for the models for pneumonia and death were 0.75 and 0.87, respectively. In validation cohort 2, c-indices for the models were 0.74 and 0.87, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully developed and validated simple-to-use risk prediction models, which would promptly provide useful information for treatment decisions in primary care settings.