Modeling the effect of vaccination strategies in an Excel spreadsheet: The rate of vaccination, and not only the vaccination coverage, is a determinant for containing COVID-19 in urban areas

Alvarez, M. M.; Bravo-Gonzalez, S.; Trujillo-de Santiago, G.

We have investigated the importance of the rate of vaccination to contain COVID-19 in urban areas. We used an extremely simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in an Excel spreadsheet and includes the demographics of social distancing, efficacy of massive testing and quarantine, and coverage and rate of vaccination as the main parameters to model the progression of COVID-19 pandemics in densely populated urban areas. Our model predicts that effective containment of pandemic progression in densely populated cities would be more effectively achieved by vaccination campaigns that consider the fast distribution and application of vaccines (i.e., 50% coverage in 6 months) while social distancing measures are still in place. Our results suggest that the rate of vaccination is more important than the overall vaccination coverage for containing COVID-19. In addition, our modeling indicates that widespread testing and quarantining of infected subjects would greatly benefit the success of vaccination campaigns. We envision this simple model as a friendly, readily accessible, and cost-effective tool for assisting health officials and local governments in the rational design/planning of vaccination strategies.