Novel risk scoring system for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

Liang, Mengyuan; He, Miao; Tang, Jian; He, Xinliang; Liu, Zhijun; Feng, Siwei; Chen, Ping; Li, Hui; Xue, Yu’e; Bai, Tao; Ma, Yanling; Zhang, Jianchu

BACKGROUND: The mortality rate from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is high among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hence, risk evaluation tools are required to immediately identify high-risk patients upon admission for early intervention. METHODS: A cohort of 220 consecutive patients with COVID-19 were included in this study. To analyze the risk factors of ARDS, data obtained from approximately 70% of the participants were randomly selected and used as training dataset to establish a logistic regression model. Meanwhile, data obtained from the remaining 30% of the participants were used as test dataset to validate the effect of the model. RESULTS: Lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen, D-dimer, procalcitonin, and ferritin levels were included in the risk score system and were assigned a score of 25, 15, 34, 20, and 24, respectively. The cutoff value for the total score was > 35, with a sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 81.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test were 0.967 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.925–0.989) and 0.437(P Value = 0.437). The model had excellent discrimination and calibration during internal validation. CONCLUSIONS: The novel risk score may be a valuable risk evaluation tool for screening patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of ARDS. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-020-05561-y.