Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics

Mario Coccia

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055657 doi: medRxiv preprint 39 | P a g e Coccia M. (2020) Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics apply, considering their geographical locations and meteorological conditions with a high density of polluting industrialization, is to avoid to overcome the limits set of PM10 and other pollutants, following more and more a sustainable pathways of growth. One of the findings here suggests that the max number of days per year that Italian provincial capitals can exceed the limits set for PM10 (particulate matter 10 micrometers or less in diameter) or for ozone, considering the meteorological condition has to be less than 50 days. After this critical point, the study suggests that environmental inconsistencies because of the combination between air pollution and meteorological conditions trigger a take-off of viral infectivity (epidemic diffusion) with damages for health of population and economy in society. Italy must design and set up necessary measures to drastically reduce the concentrations of pollution present and improve air quality in cities. Italy not has to respect Legislative Decree 155/2010 that establishes a maximum number of 35 days / year with concentrations higher than 50 μg / m 3 . As a matter of fact, the quarantine and other non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce the impact of viral infectivity in the short term, but to prevent future epidemics similar to COVID-19, Italy and advanced nations have more and more to sustain a sustainable growth. The environmental policy has to be associated with sustainable technologies that reduce air pollution improving the quality of air and environment for population to cope with future viral threats (cf., Coccia, 2005 Coccia, , 2006 Coccia, , 2018 Coccia and Watts, 2020) 5 . Italy must support, more and more, sustainable mobility as engine of socioeconomic change and redesign cities for people using an urban planning that improves public respiratory health. Moreover, in the presence of the association between air pollution, climate 6 and viral infectivity.