Selected article for: "disease exit rate parameter value and initial virus spread rate estimate"
Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA
  • Document date: 2020_4_14
    • ID: fukn227t_63
    Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 8514 1049 = 0.21. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a very small value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.03, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β − γ, gives an estimate of the initial virus spread rate at the start of the epidemic: β = 0.21+0.03 1−0.39 = 0.39. It is.....
    Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 8514 1049 = 0.21. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a very small value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.03, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β − γ, gives an estimate of the initial virus spread rate at the start of the epidemic: β = 0.21+0.03 1−0.39 = 0.39. It is this value of β that leads to the model graph in the Fig.4 .

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