Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: fukn227t_8
Snippet: We next extend the SIR model to incorporate a virus mutation factor. Our model, which we call SIMR, shows that rapid virus mutations that accompany avalanche epidemic phase can drastically scale down the epidemic and reduce the height of its peak by a factor of ten-tohundred as compared to the SIR results. In the second part of this paper, we use the SIMR model to analyze the now practically terminated COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan of China [3] . Th.....
Document: We next extend the SIR model to incorporate a virus mutation factor. Our model, which we call SIMR, shows that rapid virus mutations that accompany avalanche epidemic phase can drastically scale down the epidemic and reduce the height of its peak by a factor of ten-tohundred as compared to the SIR results. In the second part of this paper, we use the SIMR model to analyze the now practically terminated COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan of China [3] . This allows us to evaluate the main internal parameter of the model -the probability of mutation of the transmitted virus. Next, we shall use this approach to analyze and assess the current situation in other countries where the epidemic still goes.
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