Predicting Patient COVID-19 Disease Severity by means of Statistical and Machine Learning Analysis of Blood Cell Transcriptome Data

Aktar, Sakifa; Ahamad, Md. Martuza; Rashed-Al-Mahfuz, Md.; Azad, AKM; Uddin, Shahadat; Kamal, A H M; Alyami, Salem A.; Lin, Ping-I; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Quinn, Julian M.W.; Eapen, Valsamma; Moni, Mohammad Ali

Introduction: For COVID-19 patients accurate prediction of disease severity and mortality risk would greatly improve care delivery and resource allocation. There are many patient-related factors, such as pre-existing comorbidities that affect disease severity. Since rapid automated profiling of peripheral blood samples is widely available, we investigated how such data from the peripheral blood of COVID-19 patients might be used to predict clinical outcomes. Methods: We thus investigated such clinical datasets from COVID-19 patients with known outcomes by combining statistical comparison and correlation methods with machine learning algorithms; the latter included decision tree, random forest, variants of gradient boosting machine, support vector machine, K-nearest neighbour and deep learning methods. Results: Our work revealed several clinical parameters measurable in blood samples, which discriminated between healthy people and COVID-19 positive patients and showed predictive value for later severity of COVID-19 symptoms. We thus developed a number of analytic methods that showed accuracy and precision for disease severity and mortality outcome predictions that were above 90%. Conclusions: In sum, we developed methodologies to analyse patient routine clinical data which enables more accurate prediction of COVID-19 patient outcomes. This type of approaches could, by employing standard hospital laboratory analyses of patient blood, be utilised to identify, COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality and so enable their treatment to be optimised.